Trend in agricultural growth and cassava productivity in Nigeria (1961 – 2020)

This study analyzed the trend in agricultural growth and cassava productivity in Nigeria (1961 – 2020). Time series on variables of interest were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and FAOSTAT. The secondary data obtained were analysed using trend analysis, instability index, compound growth rate model, and the Granger causality test. The results showed that Nigeria’s agricultural output generally experienced an upward trend from 1960-2020. The findings also revealed a general increase in the output of cassava produced in an area in the country within the study period. The yield however experienced some relatively stable trend with mild fluctuations and a noticeable decline in 2013. Across the major policy line considered in this study, the pre-SAP era (1961 – 1985) had the lowest mean output, while the SAP and post-SAP era had the highest mean output of 24772.15 and 45181.94 respectively. The values of instability of production and land put under cassava cultivation are more pronounced in Period II [1986–1998] and Period III [1999–2020]. During period I, (Pre – SAP; 1961 – 1985), the compound growth rate (CGR) for production accelerated while yield stagnated with a CGR of 0.2%. In period II, (CGR for production (6.2%) and area (6.3%) for cassava accelerated; both CGR and instantaneous growth rate for yield experienced stagnation. For period III, there was an acceleration in output and area. There was unidirectional causality between production (output) and area under cultivation, agricultural growth and cassava production, agricultural growth and area under cassava cultivation at a 5% level of significance; while area under cassava cultivation and cassava productivity, productivity and area under cultivation exhibited a bi-directional causality at 5% significant level. The findings are compelling reasons for encouraging cassava production for sustainable food production in Nigeria as it is a versatile staple to address food security.