Climate variability and the water-energy-food nexus in the Oti and Mono Basins, West Africa

This study investigates the interactions between environmental and economic variables in the Mono and Oti basins, focusing on the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus from 1980 to 2020. Using advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques for statistical and graphical analysis, the study explores water intensity for food production and energy generation through scenario analysis, highlighting vulnerabilities in water and energy systems under future projections. The results reveal significant correlations between environmental variables such as rainfall, flow, energy, and agricultural yield, emphasizing the interdependence between natural resources and human activities. However, notable differences emerge between the two basins. In the Mono Basin, domestic water demand is projected to increase significantly by 2050, due to increased pressure on water resources, particularly driven by population growth and climate change impacts. In contrast, the Oti Basin, although experiencing increased water demand, remains relatively more stable due to more advanced water resource management practices and quicker adoption of technologies, particularly in irrigation and agricultural practices. Food and energy demand projections follow a similar trend, but the scenarios differ between the basins. In the Mono Basin, the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario predicts strong growth in food and energy demand, while the Technological Improvement (TI) scenario in the Oti Basin suggests a more sustainable path, primarily due to improved energy efficiency and optimized water management. The analysis of the WEF Nexus performance through composite indices also reveals significant differences between the two basins. The Mono Basin is more sensitive to changes in the water, energy, and food sectors, making it more vulnerable to climate change impacts and human pressures. On the other hand, the Oti Basin shows higher resilience, largely due to more integrated policies and practices. Finally, the study proposes a sustainability index that combines economic, environmental, and social factors to assess long-term resource management sustainability. This highlights the need for integrated and cross-sectoral policies that should be tailored to the specific contexts of both basins to ensure the resilience and sustainability of resource systems in the Mono and Oti basins.