A model analysis of rice production and consumption trends in South Sumatra Province

Food is a basic human need to sustain life. Rice production and rice consumption in Indonesia continue to increase and fluctuate from year to year. On the other hand, Indonesia also has the potential and opportunities to meet its food needs independently and sovereignly and can even contribute to world food security. However, several regions in one of Indonesia's provinces, namely South Sumatra Province, are still unable to meet the demand for rice in their own regions, so rice from rice production centers in South Sumatra Province is still needed. This study aims to analyze the condition of the development of rice production and consumption in 2003–2023 in South Sumatra Province, analyze trends in rice production and consumption in the last 10 years, and analyze estimates of rice production and consumption in the next 10 years in South Sumatra Province. This study used secondary data originating from data from the South Sumatra Province and processed it using Microsoft Excel and IBM SPSS Statistics 21 software. The results show that the development of rice production and consumption in South Sumatra Province has tended to increase from year to year for a period of 20 years. The trend of rice production and rice consumption in South Sumatra Province in 2003–2022 increased with an average growth in rice production of 5.96 percent and rice consumption of 0.82 percent per year. Based on the estimated rice production and rice consumption in South Sumatra Province for 2023–2032, it is known that in the next ten years they will continue to increase. so that until 2032.